Alex de Minaur's Beijing grind meets a Hubert Hurkacz running on empty
Match News and Form
Alex de Minaur has been nowhere near his best in recent months and his confidence has also been at rock bottom, but despite this difficult period, he has successfully achieved his main objective in Beijing by defending the semifinal points he earned at this venue last year. However, he has had to work extremely hard to reach this stage, following a tight 7-6, 6-2 win over Mariano Navone in the first round with back-to-back three-set battles against Quentin Halys and Andrey Rublev in the second round and quarterfinals respectively.
Things were looking extremely concerning for Hubert Hurkacz when he lost seven consecutive matches on hard courts earlier this season, raising serious questions about his fitness and ability to recover and return to his best level. However, he has firmly turned things around over the last two months, winning 15 of his last 19 matches across all levels, and has looked particularly solid during the Asian swing, reaching the final in Chengdu a few days ago before backing it up with a semifinal run in Beijing.
Fitness has been a major talking point surrounding Hurkacz over the last 20 months or so, and it could once again play a key role in his semifinal chances. After an already gruelling week in Chengdu and very little turnaround time before his Beijing campaign, he has been involved in some demanding battles here, needing three sets against Learner Tien and Arthur Gea before requiring a medical timeout during his quarterfinal against Karen Khachanov. How well he can recover physically could have a major say in the semifinal.
Head-to-head: Alex de Minaur leads 3-1
De Minaur has controlled this matchup so far, holding a solid 3-1 lead, including victories in their last two meetings at the Indian Wells Masters last year and the United Cup this year.
Stats and Facts
De Minaur is 2-1 in tour-level semifinal matches this year.
De Minaur has not gone beyond the semifinals during the Asian swing since Zhuhai in 2019.
Hurkacz has not beaten a top-10 opponent in a regular tour-level event since Geneva in May 2025.
Hurkacz has played eight matches during this Asian swing, and all eight have featured either a deciding set or a tiebreak.
Betting Analysis
This is a really difficult match to call, as both players are proven at tour level and have the ability to beat each other. However, De Minaur's current form is not convincing enough to trust him against a quality opponent, while it is also difficult to fully back Hurkacz. Despite being the more in-form player right now, he has already played too many demanding matches during this Asian swing, and facing a relentless opponent like De Minaur could prove physically exhausting at this stage.