Data-driven manager of the month: Big wins see Guardiola aim for treble
Guardiola has been significantly driven to glory by a successful April, after which he became our next manager of the month. In the period under review, he recorded seven wins and one draw in the Champions League return leg at Bayern and thus continues to progress in all three major competitions.
Champions League
Guardiola's biggest weapon has always been ball control. Short passes in small spaces from the first touch and constant circulation in order to find a gap when moving the opponent or to pass the ball to a free player on the other side of the pitch. But this year's version of Guardiola is hugely dangerous for no other reason than ball control. For the first time, we see a team playing well without the ball. Add tactical adaptability on top of that mix and you get perhaps the most complete team in history.
After league wins against Liverpool and Southampton, a demonstration of this concept came in the Champions League quarter-final home clash with Bayern Munich. Once upon a time, the concept of Manchester City's play could be described as "get the ball as soon as possible", but nowadays the team can stay in the block and wait for an opportunity when pressing with the new 4-2-4 formation.
The biggest difference between the classic 4-4-2 pressing and Guardiola's new 4-2-4 is that the pressing is initiated by the wingers, not one of the centre-backs. They are only tasked with keeping the ball out of the opponent's centre midfielders. This is particularly conducive to gains after long balls, when City still have the possession centrally and it is true that the midfield is the most important area on the pitch.
The weakness of this strategy, on the other hand, is that the opposition centre-back can play the ball through the air to the full-back, which triggers an immediate press from City's full-backs. Fortunately for Guardiola, his team has players with high game intelligence on the flanks, such as Bernardo Silva and in our example Jack Grealish, who constantly scan the position of the full-backs. Thanks to this system, City have the best defence in the league and give opponents the least amount of space.
It was from this position that the second goal in the opening game of the quarter-final against Bayern Munich stemmed, when Grealish received the ball from Dayot Upamecano, crossed the ball to Erling Haaland with his foot and he found Bernando Silva with a cross to the back post, who increased the score to 2-0 and calmed his team at an important moment.
Haaland then added a third goal and the rematch in Munich, which ended in a 1-1 draw, did not change the balance of power. The Citizens are through to the semi-finals of the Champions League, where they will play Real Madrid. According to mathematical models, they have a 51% chance of winning the title at the moment.
Premier League
In the league, Manchester City have beaten Liverpool, Southampton and Leicester City in succession, securing their role as favourites for the title. They then faced a crucial 'six-pointer' against Arsenal on Wednesday, April 26th. And Pep showed just how much of a pragmatic coach he has become.
Arsenal have the best pressing in the league this season. Guardiola's career rival, Jose Mourinho, would say the only suitable counter-strategy is the long ball. And Guardiola has made it even better.
Arsenal's pressing is designed to force the opposition to play the ball sideways. There, they then launch an aggressive attack and win the ball. Guardiola knows this strategy well though, so Mikel Arteta responded by reducing the intensity of the pressing and Arsenal stayed more in the right formation. Guardiola wanted to entice the opposition to press in the middle of the park with triangles with sixes and then let the long ball from John Stones and Ruben Dias play in front of the Arsenal centre-backs.
Once Granit Xhaka and Martin Odegaard were lured in, Thomas Partey had to react and add to the pressing. Then came a long ball into a two-on-two situation for Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne against Rob Holding and Gabriel. Haaland switched positions with De Bruyne and simply sent him behind the defence. And Arsenal failed to find an answer.
The rigour of this strategy was on full display seconds after the first goal, when the TV cameras gave us a shot of Guardiola inviting Ederson for a chat. The Brazilian goalkeeper then had to explain why he wasn't playing the ball over the central midfielders a little more.
De Bruyne then commented on the whole strategy in a post-match interview.
The win was worth a lot to City. Currently, the models give them a 91% probability of winning the title. Moreover, the dream treble is still in play. Guardiola's men advanced past Sheffield United in April to the FA Cup final, where they will face Manchester United in London. Two-thirds of that historic feat can be ticked off by Guardiola in May. Will he succeed?
