Hack the Weekend: Birmingham and Gothenburg target upsets
Norwich - Birmingham, Saturday 15:00 BST
In the ninth round of the English Championship, tenth-place Birmingham will visit eighth-place Norwich in what will be a very important match for both teams. As usual in this league, the table is extremely tight; there is a gap of just three points between the teams in fourth and tenth place, with Birmingham only one behind their Saturday opponents. Neither team is currently in dazzling form and a win would be a big boost for both of them.
Norwich have had to swallow three defeats in their last four matches, including a 6-2 humiliation against the newly-promoted Plymouth. Birmingham have taken only two points in the same period, but both teams are examples of how the table can be deceiving at the beginning of the season.
The metric of expected points, which takes into account the quality of scoring opportunities created and conceded and then calculates the probability with which a team should have scored, places Birmingham in fifth position and Norwich two positions higher.
So even as an outsider in the eyes of the bookmakers, the visitors have a decent chance of pulling off an upset. Their undisputed strength is their excellent defence, which opponents have only been able to find a way past seven times - only leaders Leicester and third-placed Preston have conceded fewer times. What's more, the team have faced the lowest amount of dangerous chances in the entire Championship.
Analysis of the data shows that the team have no visible positional weaknesses and defend the central spaces inside their own half better than anyone except Coventry.
Norwich, on the other hand, have the 16th-worst defence in the league. They are stronger in attack than their opponents (1.8 vs. 1.3 expected goals per game), but face a big challenge. Birmingham haven't been great going forward but can exploit their opponent's vulnerability to counter-attacks and set-pieces.
Pisa - Cosenza, Saturday 13:00 BST
In the eighth round of the Italian Serie B, Pisa and Cosenza, two league neighbours occupying 12th and 13th place in the table respectively, will face each other, and although the hosts are considered the favourite, their position in the table doesn't accurately reflect their performances so far. The expected points metric is again a good guide: so far, Pisa are averaging 0.83 expected points per game, the lowest in the league.
Although the team's below-average defence has also contributed to this, the main reason is the problems in attack. The forwards of coach Alberto Aquilani - a former Italian international and midfielder of Liverpool, Juventus and AC Milan - have so far very rarely been getting good shooting opportunities; their 0.7 expected goals per game is again the lowest in Serie B.
Their main strikers, Stefano Moreo and Alessandro Arena, have only scored a single goal between them, with the former looking clueless in the opposition box. All in all, the side have managed to score just five goals, with five different players taking care of the scoring.
This lack of a reliable goal scorer will play into Cosenza's hands. The team from Calabria are mediocre in all important metrics, but that could still be enough to beat Pisa.
Hammarby - Gothenburg, Sunday 16:30 BST
Hammarby produced excellent football in the Allsvenskan last season and as one of the main title contenders, finished up third in the league. However, they have been much less successful this season after the departure of a number of key players.
The sit down in fifth, and according to analytical models, should be even lower, near weekend rivals Gothenburg. In fact, it couldn't be more even, as both teams should have scored the same 30 points based on their performances up to this point. And while Gothenburg have 29 points, Hammarby are eight points above that expected figure.
According to the key data models evaluating the quality of defences and attacks, the intensity or success of the pressing, the play in the air, the danger of counter-attacks or even the gains of rebounded balls in different parts of the pitch, the two teams are extremely similar. The main difference between them is that while Hammarby's style is based on ball possession and combination play, Gothenburg's is more direct.
The best indicator of the outcome of the match is therefore form, and that gives the upper hand to Goteborg, who have won four times in their last five games, also getting a valuable draw at the ground of leaders Malmo. So they are certainly in with a chance in Sunday's clash.
