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Euro 2024 permutations: How things stand ahead of final qualifiers

Euro 2024 will be held from 14 June until 14 July 2024
Euro 2024 will be held from 14 June until 14 July 2024Reuters
Will any giants miss out? Will any underdogs upset the odds? With just two rounds of Euro 2024 qualifying left, let's take a look at how things stand heading into the final matches.

The top two teams in each qualifying group will be guaranteed a spot in the draw for next summer's tournament in Germany.

Play-off spots will then be handed to twelve teams based on performances in the most recent edition of the UEFA Nations League. Those teams will be split up into three brackets of four, and the three teams that win their semi-final and final will head to the Euros.

With all of the cleared up, here's how things are looking...

Group A

Group A standings
Group A standingsFlashscore

Group A is one of the simpler groups, with Spain and Scotland securing the top two spots and their places in Germany last month.

Georgia are guaranteed a play-off spot as they finished top of their Nations League group, but Norway will have to hope results elsewhere go their way if they want one, too.

Cyprus are out.

Group B

Group B standings
Group B standingsFlashscore

Having won every match thus far, France have secured top spot in Group B, and are all but certain to be joined in the top two by the Netherlands.

While the Dutch are level on points with Greece, they've beaten Gus Poyet's side twice and have a game in hand on them, meaning they just need to win one of their final two matches to qualify. Given that one of them is against Gibraltar, they're extremely likely to do that.

Greece are at least guaranteed to make it into the play-offs. Whether the Republic of Ireland join them there or not depends on results in other groups.

Gibraltar are out.

Group C

Group C standings
Group C standingsFlashscore

England have already qualified for the Euros, but fellow giants Italy are in serious danger of failing to do so automatically for the second major tournament in a row.

Their final game is against Ukraine, and that clash will decide which of the two sides finishes second. If the Azzurri win their penultimate game against North Macedonia, they can afford to draw the decider, but if they fail to do so, they'll have to beat the Ukrainians.

Italy are at least guaranteed a play-off spot should things go wrong, while Ukraine are likely to get one if they finish third.

North Macedonia and Malta are out.

Group D

Group D standings
Group D standingsFlashscore

Italy aren't the only major nation in trouble, with Croatia also far from certain of finishing inside the top two of their group.

Turkey have already qualified, and Wales will join them if they beat Armenia and Turkey regardless of what Croatia do, thanks to their superior head-to-head record over Luka Modric and co. If the Welsh drop any points though, the World Cup semi-finalists will take second as long as they beat Armenia and Croatia.

Simply put, Croatia have to pick up more points in the final two matches than Wales and will go into the play-offs if they don't. Wales aren't guaranteed the same backup option but are likely to get it.

Armenia have only a slim chance of making the play-offs, while Latvia are out.

Group E

Group E standings
Group E standingsFlashscore

Group E is one of the tightest, with four of the five teams still in with a chance of finishing inside the top two. Given that, things are a bit complicated...

Albania will secure a spot in the top two if they avoid defeat to Moldova in their penultimate match - a Moldovan win would end Poland's chances of qualifying automatically.

Poland won't be able to qualify automatically regardless if they don't beat the Czech Republic in what is their final game, while the Czechs will qualify with a match to spare if they win that match and Moldova don't win.

The final round of matches sees Albania host the Faroe Islands and the Czech Republic host Moldova, so the current top two are the most likely sides to finish there regardless of what happens in the second-to-last matchday.

No team in the group has yet been eliminated with the Faroe Islands still in with an extremely slim chance of making the play-offs. The current top three could also qualify via that route, but Moldova's only hope is making it through automatically.

Group F

Group F standings
Group F standingsFlashscore

Things are nice and simple in Group F, with Belgium and Austria guaranteed to finish in the top two spots and head to the Euros in June.

Sweden are the only one of the three other sides with no hope of making the play-offs, while Estonia are all but certain to do so. There is still some hope for Azerbaijan, but not much.

Group G

Group G standings
Group G standingsFlashscore

The battle for the top two spots in Group G isn't quite wrapped up, but Hungary and Serbia can already start thinking about booking their flights to Germany.

Both will secure their qualification if Montenegro fail to beat Lithuania in their penultimate match, while Hungary can also do so by avoiding defeat against Bulgaria in theirs.

Hungary and Serbia will have their fate in their own hands in their final games regardless, qualifying as long as they don't lose them to Montenegro and Bulgaria respectively.

Bulgaria have only a small chance of making the play-offs, while Lithuania are out.

Group H

Group H standings
Group H standingsFlashscore

There's one heck of a three-way fight taking place for the top two spots in Group H, with Euro 2020 semi-finalists Denmark yet to guarantee their place in the next edition of the tournament.

They can do so with a win in their next match, which is against Slovenia, while a defeat for the Danes would send their opponents through. A draw, assuming that Kazakhstan beat San Marino, would mean that all three teams could finish in any of the top three spots heading into the final round of games.

In that scenario, Denmark would only need to draw their final match against Northern Ireland, while Slovenia would need to avoid defeat and Kazakhstan would need to win in their clash with one another.

Denmark and Kazakhstan are both guaranteed a play-off spot at the least as are Finland, but Slovenia aren't, although they do have a chance of getting one.

Northern Ireland and San Marino are out.

Group I

Group I standings
Group I standingsFlashscore

Group I has become a four-horse race thanks to Kosovo's recent victory over Israel, but they'll drop out of it if Switzerland beat the Israelis.

Such a result would see the Swiss secure qualification and mean that Romania could join them by avoiding defeat in their match with Israel soon after. A Romanian win in that clash would send them through regardless of what happens before it.

Isreal have to win both of those matches and hope that Switzerland slip up against Kosovo. If those scenarios don't play out, they'll go into the play-offs.

Kosovo meanwhile have to hope that Switzerland don't beat Isreal and then win their own two remaining matches to be in with a chance. If they don't finish in the top two, they're not guaranteed a play-off place.

Belarus and Andorra are out.

Group J

Group J standings
Group J standingsFlashscore

Portugal have topped Group J with ease, winning every match, but there are still three teams that could end up finishing second to them.

Slovakia are most likely to do, needing only to avoid defeat in one of their two remaining matches to confirm their place at the Euros.

If they lost both, Luxembourg would take second from them with wins over both Bosnia & Herzegovina and Liechtenstein, while Iceland would have to follow up their victory over Slovakia with another against Portugal and hope that Luxembourg dropped at least a point.

Luxembourg and Bosnia & Herzegovina are both guaranteed play-off places at worst, while Iceland would be highly likely to get one and Slovakia would have a decent chance.

Liechtenstein are out.

Click here to see all the Euro 2024 qualifying tables and fixtures

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