Kane, Mbappe or Ronaldo? Who will be the top goalscorer at Euro 2024?
Below, we look at a few of the promising candidates for the Euro 2024 Golden Boot:
Harry Kane (England)
England's captain didn't need any time to familiarise himself with his new club after moving from Tottenham Hotspur to FC Bayern Munich. In his debut season in the Bundesliga, he scored 36 goals in 32 appearances, at least eight more than any other player in the big five European leagues in the 2023/24 season. These 36 goals made it the best Bundesliga debut campaign ever.
He was also involved in 12 goals in the UEFA Champions League in the 2023/24 season (8 goals, 4 assists); the most ever by an English player in a single edition of the competition.
In addition, he holds the record for most goals scored for England both overall (63) and in major competitions (12 goals at World Cups and Euros). In the last three major tournaments, France’s Kylian Mbappé is the only player with as many goals as Kane (12 goals each at the 2018 World Cup, Euro 2020, and 2022 World Cup).
Indeed, Kane either scored or assisted in each of his seven starts during qualification for Euro 2024 (8 goals, 2 assists).
Kane should be able to gain some early momentum thanks to a favourable group-stage draw. While Slovenia are competing in the finals for the first time since 2000, Serbia are competing in the Euros for the first time as a sovereign state.
Kane also scored the winning goal against Denmark in the Euro 2020 semi-finals, so there could be plenty of opportunities for him - out of all the 12 teams that have played more than 20 games at the UEFA European Championship finals, Denmark average the highest goals per game (2.79 – 42 for, 50 against).
Kylian Mbappé (France)
Real Madrid’s new signing, who scored eight goals to win the Golden Boot as Les Bleus finished second at the 2022 World Cup, is once again one of the favourites to lead the goalscoring charts.
Despite having scored 12 goals in 14 World Cup games, and appearing set to smash Miroslav Klose's record of 16 goals, Mbappé failed to score in his only previous UEFA European Championship campaign (4 games at Euro 2020).
Following a season in which Mbappé scored 44 goals in 47 games across all competitions – a total only matched by Kane (44 in 45 games) among players from Europe's big five leagues – few would anticipate a repeat for the 2024 edition.
He also scored nine goals in eight Euro 2024 qualifying matches. However, France may be somewhat less dependent on one star than other countries due to Didier Deschamps' abundance of attacking options and the possibility that Mbappé will play on the left flank.
Romelu Lukaku (Belgium)
After 115 international games, the Roma forward has scored 85 goals, making him Belgium's all-time leading goalscorer. Eleven of those goals have come in major competitions (World Cups/Euros), but he struggled in Qatar 18 months ago and has only scored twice for his nation in knockout matches. He shouldn't be written off in the Golden Boot race at this year's tournament, however.
The 31-year-old broke the record for most goals scored in a single qualification campaign with an incredible 14 goals in eight Euro 2024 qualifiers. He averaged a goal every 39 minutes and scored from nearly half of his shots (29), which accounted for 63.6 per cent of Belgium’s 22 total goals in qualification. Lukaku should be optimistic about a strong start because Belgium's Group E opponents are Slovakia, Romania, and Ukraine.
Some of the top creators on the continent will also support Lukaku. Kevin De Bruyne has the most assists of any player in Europe since the start of the 2014 World Cup with nine at major tournaments (5 at the Euros, 4 at World Cups).
In 2023/24, he led all Premier League players in chances created (3.37) and expected assists (0.42 xA) per 90. Jérémy Doku, a teammate from Belgium and De Bruyne's City, ranks third for chances created (2.49) and second for xA per 90 (0.33) in the Premier League. Lukaku shouldn't struggle to find chances.
Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal)
At Euro 2020, five-time Ballon d'Or winner Cristiano Ronaldo produced in just four games, which was enough to surpass Czechia's Patrik Schick and win the Golden Boot with five goals and one assist.
This is, in many respects, Ronaldo's competition. His records at the UEFA European Championships include the most goals (14), most games (25), and joint-most assists (6, data collection beginning in 1972) as well as the most editions with at least one goal (5).
Since 1972, Ronaldo has been involved in twice as many goals as any other player at the Euros (20 goals, 6 assists), with Michel Platini coming in a distant second (10 goals, 9 assists).
But as everyone gets older, some have questioned the 39-year-old's worth to Portugal, especially since he moved from Manchester United to Al Nassr following the 2022 World Cup. Even though he may not be at the top of the game in European club football anymore, Ronaldo broke the record for most goals scored in a single season in the Saudi Pro League in 2023/24 by scoring 35 goals, which was more than his xG total of 30.68. Additionally, he scored 10 goals in nine qualifiers for Euro 2024.
Though there are still concerns about Ronaldo's ability to operate in a cohesive off-the-ball structure, it is obvious that he will take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves.
He also shouldn't have to put up with poor service. Three Portuguese players were among the ten players in Europe's big five leagues to create the most open-play opportunities in 2023/24 (all competitions): Bruno Fernandes (1st with 111), Bernardo Silva (8th with 84), and Rafael Leão (T-9th with 82).
Outsiders
These four players are the most likely choices to win the Golden Boot, but the following players also shouldn't be disregarded:
Patrik Schick (Czechia)
The Leverkusen striker scores on average in every other game for the Czech Republic (19 goals in 38 games), while his average is even better at the European Championship finals. In his only participation at Euro 2020, he scored five goals in five games, with no player netting more (Ronaldo also 5). With these five goals, he is also Czechia’s joint-top scorer at the UEFA European Championships with Milan Baros, who played twice as many games (10) as Schick.
The 28-year-old Prague native comes to Euro 2024 with a lot of confidence, having recently won the first double in the history of Bayer 04 Leverkusen (Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal). Although Schick missed many games in the 2023/24 season at club level due to injury, he still managed to play 33 games in which he scored 13 times – and that from just 18 starts.
Álvaro Morata (Spain)
In 2023/24, Morata netted 15 goals in 27 LaLiga games for Atlético Madrid, tying his record for the most goals in one of the big five leagues in Europe, after also scoring 15 goals for Real Madrid in 2016-17.
Although he missed several opportunities at Euro 2020, Morata's overall performance at the European Championship finals has been more than decent (10 appearances). Thierry Henry, Patrick Kluivert, Wayne Rooney, Zlatan Ibrahimović, and Morata himself are all tied for fifth place in the competition's all-time goalscoring standings with six goals.
In qualifying for Euro 2024, Morata was also the joint-top goalscorer for the Spaniards with Real Madrid's Joselu, each with four goals.
Gianluca Scamacca (Italy)
Although Scamacca has only scored once in 16 games for Italy, the former West Ham striker should be included if manager Luciano Spalletti chooses his starting lineup based on form. In 2023/24, he scored 19 goals for Atalanta in all competitions, a huge difference over his xG total of 11.2 (+7.8).
He also finished the domestic season by winning the UEFA Europa League for the Italian side, so the 25-year-old striker will be heading to Germany with a lot of confidence.
Rasmus Højlund (Denmark)
With seven goals in the qualifying for Euro 2024, Højlund led Denmark in shots (23), shots on target (13), and xG (5.2). His debut season at Manchester United was uneventful, but he finished strong, scoring in his final two Premier League games before helping them win the FA Cup final.
Between December 2023 and February 2024, he even scored in six consecutive Premier League appearances (7 goals), and if he can create that kind of momentum at this summer’s UEFA European Championships, he could well attract attention in the race for Golden Boot.
