Lacklustre France take on free-scoring Spain in heavyweight semi-final
The former are building on their dominance from the turn of the first and second decade of this millennium. In the quarter-finals, they took on and beat the Germans, who were considered by experts to be their biggest rival in the battle for the trophy.
And now Spain are aiming for their first European Championship final since 2012 (and fifth overall). Under Luis de la Fuente, they have undergone a distinct transformation in just 18 months. Long gone is the prolonged possession of the ball (which often lacked a clear result).
At this tournament, their opponents have had the ball more in two games out of five (the Croatians 53% and the Germans 52%). That's more times in major tournament matches than the Spaniards had in 44 such duels between 2006 and 2022.
Les Bleus have reached the final of the Euros three times, but twice of those came when the tournament was on home soil. Unlike Spain, they are still a long way from being comfortable in Germany.
In five matches, they have struggled to find any kind of rhythm in the final third, with only an Austrian header, Kylian Mbappe penalty and a deflected cross against Belgium sending them unconvincingly through to the last four.
This means that not a single one of France's shots in open play at the European Championship has resulted in a goal. Les Bleus have thus become the first team in the history of the tournament to register at least 50 attempts (excluding those from penalties) and not score.
It also mirrors the struggles of France's leading attacker. Mbappe has already directed 20 shots on goal, with only the one from the penalty spot against Poland being successful.
The Real Madrid star has not been doing well at the European Championship for a long time. The aforementioned goal is his only one out of 34 shots on target, a success rate of just 3%. Whereas, at the World Cup, about one in three of his finishes have been on target (12 goals, 39 shots, 31%).
At the other end of the pitch, Mike Maignan is France's star goalkeeper. He boasts a superb 94% save percentage, no one else with more than one appearance at the tournament has such a high percentage. The last time a keeper achieved a similar efficiency was Spain's Iker Casillas in 2012, so the French supporters have at least some reason for optimism.
The Spaniards have had plenty of standout performers. Like 16-year-old Lamine Yamal, who is already making history. The Barcelona winger passed the ball to Dani Olmo for Spain's opener in the quarter-final and it was his third assist of the tournament. No other player has set up more goals than him at Euro 2024.
However, perhaps more important for the clash against France, is how the team will cope in the absence of right-back Dani Carvajal, who was sent off in the quarter-final. It is in his space that the agile Mbappe, who has the highest dribbling success rate of any player in Germany (53%), is playing.
De la Fuente is likely to replace Carvajal with the almost 39-year-old veteran Jesus Navas. The Sevilla defender, who just a few days ago, became the oldest Spaniard ever to play for the national team in a major tournament. Could this be a perfect opportunity for Mbappe to kickstart his tournament?
