Hack the Weekend: Barça, Villarreal and Hamburg face home discomforts
That's why Flashscore, in cooperation with a team of analysts from Czech data company 11Hacks, is bringing you a data-driven overview every Friday about where those (un)expected results might occur in the wide world of football to help you ultimately hack the weekend.
Hamburg - Greuther Furth, Saturday 12:00 BST
Although the 2. Bundesliga is a very balanced competition, where after nine rounds played only five points separate the 13th team from the top positions, a current 10th place does not suit Gruether Furth at all.
The team led by coach Alexander Zorniger is playing some nice attacking football, which is no match for even the biggest favourites for promotion, including Hamburg.
According to the data models, Furth is creating the third-best chances in the competition behind Kaiserslautern and Hamburg, but so far their players have been undone by their lack of efficiency in front of the opposition goal.
Their defence is also operating very well, with only one weak point so far, and that is the goalkeeper. At only 20 years old, Jonas Urbig is highly regarded for his footwork, but in terms of his saves, he is one of the worst keepers in the competition according to mathematical models.
However, while Furth rarely let the opposition players have quality chances, the defence is definitely not Hamburg's strong point. In fact, they are only average in the league, which is also reflected in their results.
In the last month, Hamburg have only won once and have only gained four points in total. This weekend, another capable opponent will visit their stadium and an upset could be on the cards.
Villarreal - Alaves, Sunday 17:30 BST
Before Sunday's big clash in LaLiga (below), at the other end of the table, there will be a contest between teams looking to bounce back after a poor start to the season.
Both sixteenth-placed Villarreal and seventeenth-placed Alaves have the same points (eight) and while the visitors, as newcomers to the competition, can afford this position in a way, the Yellow Submarine's current performances are certainly not to the liking of the fans. If only because their team finished fifth last season, securing participation in the Europa League group stage.
Although new coach Pacheta managed to win his first game against Almeria, he has only secured two more points from the following four games.
Villarreal's main problem after the summer departure of stopper Pau Torres is their defensive performance, which is the third worst in the current league season despite a relatively decent draw. The team tries to play attacking football with a high block and active press but after a number of summer departures, they don't control the game and allow many dangerous shots in matches.
The fact that central midfielder or winger Alex Baena will also be serving a suspension in the upcoming game is also a huge blow to the team as he is an absolutely pivotal creative player and executor of set pieces. Only Inaki Williams of Bilbao and Savio of Girona have a better quality final pass in LaLiga, according to the metric of expected assists.
Alaves' defence comes out much better in comparison, while both offences are comparable by most important offensive metrics. Favourites Villarreal should certainly not expect an easy match here.
Barcelona - Bilbao, Sunday 20:00 BST
Sunday night will belong to a closely watched duel between third-placed Barcelona and fifth-placed Athletic Bilbao at Barca's temporary home. Although the bookmakers have the hosts as strong favourites, the match itself may not be so clear-cut.
Although the Basques have lost offensive-minded full-back Oscar de Marcos and defensive midfielder Mikel Vesga, according to preliminary reports, their opponent's squad is currently of much greater concern.
It is certain that not only striker Robert Lewandowski will be missing but also key figures in the other areas - midfielders Pedri and Frenkie de Jong are out, as is stopper Jules Kounde, while winger Raphinha is questionable.
Against the vast majority of opponents, Barcelona can dominate on the pitch despite absences due to the depth of their squad but this time they face a much tougher challenge.
Bilbao's defence is the best in terms of the quality of goal-scoring opportunities allowed so far in the current LaLiga campaign. For example, they allowed only 0.9 expected goals to Real Madrid in their fixture and have maintained an average of around 0.8 across the season.
Their last game against Almeria was a good demonstration of their quality. Although Almeria are currently rock-bottom in the table, they are in that position mainly because of their poor defence. In terms of the quality of chances created, they are actually well above average. Yet, against Bilbao, Almeria recorded only one shot on target and a measly 0.09 expected goals.
And if Barcelona do pose a threat, Athletic can count on their excellent goalkeeper Unai Simon, who has already managed to make some incredible saves this season. According to advanced data models, only Jeremias Ledesma of Cadiz and Alvaro Valles of Las Palmas have prevented more goals. Although many fans remember him for a curious own goal at the last Euros, when the ball went under his boot, Simon is also one of the best with the ball at his feet and is thus of great value to his side.
Moreover, coach Ernesto Valverde's charges don't only rely on good defence, they are also a threat going forward. While they don't pepper their opponents with as many shots as Real and Barcelona, they still manage to create many chances in the area around the penalty spot regularly thanks to the excellent movement of Inaki Williams and Gorka Guruzeta.
Athletic have a well-handled quick transition into attack and, on top of that, they boast quite possibly the most effective pressing in LaLiga. This is, in short, a team that is very uncomfortable to play against. Especially when you're missing your key goal-scorer. Look out Barca!
