Hack the Weekend: Betis streak at risk, another test for Palmeiras
Real Betis v Mallorca
At first glance, it seems that this will be a match with a clear-cut outcome. Betis hasn't lost six times in a row in the league and is currently only one point behind the cup positions, while Mallorca is only 16th in the La Liga table, three points away from the relegation zone. However, coach Manuel Pellegrini's team may be facing the same tough encounter in front of their own fans as in the last round, when a narrow 2-1 win against Osasuna was only scored by midfielder Isco in the fourth minute of stoppage time.
Although Betis has been doing well in terms of results lately, it has been visibly lagging behind the best league sides in terms of play and is more around average in most of the important offensive and defensive metrics. That is, in the same waters that Mallorca is in. In terms of quality and volume of chances allowed, the two teams are as similar as eggs to eggs. Their 1.22 expected goals conceded is roughly on par with Bilbao and Real Sociedad and suggests that Mallorca should climb up the table in the coming weeks.
The two attacks are also similar - Betis have amassed 14.31 expected goals, Mallorca are on 12.52. However, a deeper analysis shows that the Seville side could be in trouble in the air. Indeed, it has one of the lowest percentages of defensive headers won - only Villarreal has allowed more dangerous chances from centres so far.
On the other hand, the opponent from the Balearic Islands maintains an above-average offensive header success rate and is dangerous in the air not only from set pieces but especially from standard situations. From these, they have created the most valuable chances in La Liga so far, scoring four goals, the second-highest total in the competition.
Together with Getafe, Mallorca are the draw kings of the competition. The two clubs have shared the points with their opponents on six occasions in the 11 games played so far, and it probably came as a surprise to few that their mutual duel last week ended in a 0-0 draw. Can they now turn the tables on a more famous opponent?
Palmeiras v Athletico-PR
One of the highlights of the weekend in the Brazilian Serie A will be the duel between second-placed Palmeiras and seventh-placed Athletico Paranaense. While the visitors had an eventful game against Corinthians, Palmeiras put up an emotional battle against the leader from Botafogo on Thursday. In that game, they first managed to make up a three-goal deficit and then made a big turnaround to 4-3 in stoppage time, bringing their rivals to within three points. However, another difficult match is imminent for them.
According to the "truth table", an analytical metric of expected points that takes into account both offensive and defensive performances, Sunday's opponents are the two best teams in Serie A. The difference between them should be only one point. Palmeiras have allowed two expected goals less to their opponents in their games so far and have a very good catching veteran in Weverton, Athletico on the other hand are slightly better up front. But even there the differences are minimal.
The visitors may struggled with the injury of young striker Vitor Roque (a Barcelona player from next July), who has managed to score 11 goals and assist three more in 1,739 minutes played, but despite his current eight-match absence, they create enough chances. Only three other teams have scored more goals since mid-September. Much has been made of another striker Pablo, who has scored three times in his last four games.
Palmeiras will look to dominate and play the ball in front of their home fans, while Athletico can be expected to make fast breaks, making them not only one of the most active teams in the league, but also the most dangerous. And Palmeiras often have big gaps when defending counterattacks...
Nijmegen v FC Volendam
The standings at the tail of the Dutch Eredivisie offered a truly bizarre scene at the beginning of November. For the first time in history, the crisis-laden Ajax dropped to the bottom of the table, the penultimate position was held by Utrecht, who finished seventh last season, and the barrier position belonged to Volendam. That is, the team that, according to the data models, should be in the zone that ensures qualification for the Conference League play-offs.
After the loss in Thursday's league game against Ajax, they dropped to the second from bottom in the league table.
However, the team led by only 32-year-old coach Matthias Kohler still won two of their last four games and will have a good opportunity to support their expected rise up the table on Sunday against Nijmegen. Although the bookmakers have them as clear favourites, Volendam have a very decent chance to succeed.
In terms of defensive metrics, the two teams are virtually identical, with Volendam clearly having the upper hand offensively. While NEC is only generating 1.1 expected goals per game, their opponent even has the league's fifth-best offense with 1.6. While its main strategy in the final third is centres, NEC's defenders are below average in the air and, for example, have conceded the most goals of anyone from standard situations.
