Hack the Weekend: Frankfurt, Betis and Cluj face unpopular styles
That's why Flashscore, in cooperation with a team of analysts from Czech data company 11Hacks, is bringing you a data-driven overview every Friday about where those (un)expected results might occur in the wide world of football to help you ultimately hack the weekend.
CFR Cluj - Sepsi, Saturday 18:00
Sepsi are an analytical phenomenon in the current edition of the Romanian top flight. According to the expected points metric, which takes into account the quality of chances created and allowed, and then calculates the probability with which a team will win, lose or draw the match, they should be the current table toppers.
In reality, however, the team have accumulated 17 points less than the expected value and is only fifth in the championship group. The chances of winning the trophy may have vanished, but second-placed Cluj will not have it easy against Sepsis in Saturday's match.
Sepsi have the league's best defence in terms of volume and quality of shooting opportunities allowed. Their opponents are expected to score 0.74 goals per game against them, a similar figure to that of Manchester City in the Premier League or Napoli in Serie A. Cluj is at around 0.9 xGa. The quality of chances created also speaks in Sepsi's favour, at 1.3 xG per game compared to 1.2 by Cluj.
The analysis of passes in the final third of the pitch shows that Cluj concedes the highest volume of chances from crosses from the wing and from deep and are also vulnerable to short passes heading into the box from the wing. Sepsi are a team that have an arsenal of a large number of offensive solutions at its disposal, and it is these types of passes that play a major role. The centre of the pitch is defended very well by Cluj and Sepsi probably won't get much space there. However, if they attack down the flanks, their players will be dangerous.
Frankfurt - Mönchengladbach, Saturday 18:30
Fans of Bundesliga side Frankfurt could be in for an unpleasant surprise on Saturday. Borussia Mönchengladbach will come to Deutsche Bank Park and will be more than an equal opponent for the current seventh best team in the league. Both teams are generating roughly 1.4 expected goals per game so far this season and their defences are also similar.
While Mönchengladbach are allowing slightly better quality chances to their opponents, the very erratic performance of Frankfurt goalkeeper Kevin Trapp must also be taken into account. He has failed to build on an excellent previous season, during which he and Bielefeld's Stefan Ortega (currently Manchester City's back-up keeper) dominated most of the important data metrics assessing the quality of the goalkeepeing. He is now performing well below average in those same metrics.
Moreover, Borussia will be able to use two of their strongest disciplines against Frankfurt, which are set pieces and quick counters. They are seventh best in the Bundesliga in the overall volume of chances from set pieces and their corner kicks are even the second most effective only behind Leipzig. Frankfurt are only 12th in the league in defending these situations. Only the teams at the bottom of the table have conceded more goals from them: Hertha, Augsburg and Bochum.
Mönchengladbach are also one of the most counter-attacking teams in the competition and their quantity is backed up by quality. Only Bayern, Leipzig and Leverkusen have created better shots from breakaways. Borussia open up the opponents' defences best with diagonal passes from the middle of the pitch. Together with passes from the cutback zones, these are the situations Frankfurt defend against the worst. Keeping a clean sheet will be a very difficult task for them.
Betis - Espanyol, Saturday 18:30
Espanyol are going through a difficult period. They have lost five games in a row, dropped to second last place in LaLiga and now face sixth-placed Betis, who will have the home advantage. A clear-cut affair? Appearances can be deceptive.
The current position of both teams in the table is far from matching what they are doing on the pitch. According to the metric of expected points, both opponents should be around the middle of the table and the quality of their defences and attacks are, from an analytical point of view, virtually identical.
Espanyol's strong weapon is set pieces, from which they create the most dangerous chances in the league. Their corner kicks in particular are very effective - although they take a below-average number of them per game, only four other teams have scored more goals from corners than them. Betis is an ideal target, as they are one of the teams that defend the worst in terms of dealing with dead-ball situations.
At the same time, this doesn't mean that the team from Barcelona relies only on crosses in attack. They often get passes inside the penalty area from the cutback zones and can create quality shooting opportunities from them. Moreover, Betis are very vulnerable from these situations. A fresh change in coach could be a boost for crisis-ridden Espanyol. Luis García, who is closely connected to the club as its former player, took the helm last week and could work as a good motivator in the coming rounds.
