Hack the Weekend: London rivals clash as Bruges and Cagliari rise
The right answer to this question can often be extremely valuable, especially if the numbers suggest that the favourites might just slip up.
That's why Flashscore.co.uk, in co-operation with a team of analysts from Czech data company 11Hacks, is bringing you a data-driven overview every Friday about where those (un)expected results might occur in the wide world of football to help you ultimately hack the weekend.
Cercle Brugge v Club Brugge
This weekend's derby between two teams from Bruges, Belgium, should offer an even show according to the analytical models. This prediction is mainly based on Cercle's well-functioning defensive performance. In terms of the quality of the chances they allow their opponents, they are the sixth-best defence in the Jupiler Pro League this season.
In terms of current form, the team hasn't lost a single game in the last five matches and has conceded an average of only 0.6 expected goals (xG) per game, which is the best result in the league in this period.
That run of fixtures was certainly not an easy one, either. Among others, they played second-placed Royale Union SG, fifth-placed Gent and sixth-placed Liege. Moreover, the team led by young coach Miron Muslic can rely on the best goalkeeper of the 2022/23 season so far.
Poland's Radoslaw Majecki is not only an important part of the defence but also performs well in the vast majority of models that assess the quality of a goalkeeper's catching. Based on how strikers place their shots on goal, he has already prevented five goals with his saves. That's the most in the entire league.
Their city rivals also have a strong player between the sticks - veteran Simon Mignolet has already managed to prevent four goals. Compared to Cercle, however, the Club Brugge defence allows a higher number of dangerous chances against them. Looking at all games this season, they are only the ninth best in the metric of expected goals conceded. Defensively, they are certainly not dominating the league under their new coach Scott Parker.
The former Fulham and Bournemouth coach took over at the end of December and has led the team in seven games since. Up front, the team is performing very well under him but there are still gaps at the back. While Cercle boast the best defence in the last seven games, Brugge are the 11th best in the league.
All of the above suggests that Club Brugge could face a difficult test at both ends of the pitch. In addition to a solid defence, Cercle will also rely on counterattacks and set pieces - they have the second highest xG in the league from both of these situations.
Norwegian stopper Jesper Daland is an important man in offensive set pieces for Cercel as he is the most frequent target of crosses. He is one of the team's busiest players and he will be available again after serving a suspension last match. Ayase Ueda and Ahoueke Denkey will be the main threats on the counterattack.
Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham
West Ham United are not a team that should be fighting against relegation from the Premier League. According to the mathematical model of expected points, which takes into account the quality of chances created and chances conceded, they should have gained 11 more points than they actually have and be sitting in 10th place in the table. No other team of the current season is so far behind their expected performance.
The main reason for their current 16th position is a dysfunctional attack. In the previous two seasons, Michail Antonio was excellent, but this season, he has had 20 shots in 21 games played and failed to convert several big chances. Gianluca Scamacca is adapting very slowly to the Premier League and Jarrod Bowen is not finishing well at all. The solution was supposed to be the winter arrival of Danny Ings from Aston Villa, but he is still gaining match fitness after injury problems. In terms of the quality of chances created, West Ham are 13th in the league.
However, once (and if) the attack starts to perform better, the Hammers' should start to rise up the table. They have a good foundation in their defence, which has been one of the better defences throughout the course of the current season. Currently, it is the fifth best behind Manchester City, Arsenal, Brighton and Newcastle.
Spurs' offence, meanwhile, hovers around the league average and usually leans only on the always-reliable Harry Kane and the currently struggling Son Hueng-min. The Korean's goal drought is likely to end soon as he continues to be very active shooting and getting into great finishing positions, but he will be more likely to score against teams with poor defences - something West Ham are not.
Even though West Ham's attack is lacklustre, they should get chances against Tottenham. The Spurs' defence, as with the attack, has been mediocre by league standards this season and has suffered from the erratic performances of their now-injured goalkeeper Hugo Lloris, among other things.
The team captain will not feature in the London derby on Sunday and will be replaced in goal by Fraser Forster. He has so far in the current season played two games - against Brentford and Leicester he has conceded six goals from 10 shots, where even an average Premier League goalkeeper would have received two fewer according to the models. Moreover, his decline is a long-term trend.
Another huge problem for Spurs is the six-month absence of defensive midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur. This is because they are losing a player who dominates in the midfield in actively taking the ball away and is capable of stopping the opponent's actions in dangerous areas. With Bentancur missing between rounds 17 to 20 due to injury, Arsenal, Brentford and Aston Villa all scored twice against Tottenham. In that period, Conte's charges only managed one win - against Palace - and allowed a total of six xG to their opponents.
Spurs lost all three points to Leicester in the last round and then failed to win the Champions League second round against crisis-hit AC Milan. This weekend another difficult test awaits them.
Bari v Cagliari
The management of the Italian Serie B side Cagliari dismissed coach Fabio Liverani at Christmas and the experienced Claudio Ranieri took his place. Although the team was 14th in the table at the time, the former coach of a long line of elite European clubs inherited a decent squad.
At the time of his appointment, the team had a run of very unlucky results and, according to the expected points model, should have been as high as fourth in the league table. And they are in an essentially identical position after playing five games under Ranieri.
In terms of the quality of scoring chances created, only leaders Frosinone have a better attack. While in terms of chances conceded only Genoa, Frosinone, Reggina and Parma are ahead of them with better defensive stats. In addition, the performances of their defence have been matched by the saves of Boris Radunovic, who is one of the elite goalkeepers in Serie B.
On the other side of things, 16 other teams are defending better than Bari in terms of xG conceded in the league. Cagliari should threaten them from set pieces as only Ascoli are creating better chances in these scenarios. Cagliari shouldn't be too badly hurt by the absence of their sidelined stopper Giorgio Altare. Even though he is the most frequent target of crosses, those chances have been evenly spread across a number of players this season.
Bari are definitely one of the above-average teams in Serie B this season but they lag behind Cagliari both offensively and especially defensively according to the numbers. Look out for an upset there, too, and good luck hacking the weekend!
