Hack the Weekend: Man Utd, Atletico and Dortmund face tough tests
That's why Flashscore, in cooperation with a team of analysts from Czech data company 11Hacks, is bringing you a data-driven overview every Friday about where those (un)expected results might occur in the wide world of football to help you ultimately hack the weekend.
Dortmund - Union Berlin, Saturday
The Bundesliga clash between fourth-placed Borussia Dortmund and eleventh-placed Union Berlin looks clear at first glance. Dortmund, along with Bayern and Leverkusen, are among the only unbeaten teams in the league and will welcome a crisis-ridden side at home that has lost four times in a row. What's more, Union also failed in Tuesday's Champions League match, when they lost 2-3 to Portugal's Braga.
However, the truth is that in the vast majority of cases, Union had an advantage in the game expressed not only by better control over the match but also by the quality of the shooting opportunities created. According to the data models, the Berliners should be close behind their next opponents, not seven places lower. In short, the team looks very decent at both ends of the pitch, and if they maintain their performance levels, good results will surely come.
Union will very likely try to pepper Dortmund with as many crosses as possible. Firstly, this is their main strategy in the final third of the pitch, and secondly, they have a very good command of set pieces. The home team doesn't thrive at defending in the air and it is quite possible that they will actually concede a headed goal.
Manchester United - Brentford, Saturday
In the eighth round of the English Premier League, Manchester United will welcome London side Brentford to Old Trafford in a duel between teams currently going through results crises. The tenth-placed Red Devils have lost three of their last four league games, including last weekend's match against Crystal Palace, while Thomas Frank's side have been waiting five games to claim all three points. As a result, they have fallen to 14th in the table.
However, while one of the sides' current positions is fully deserved, the other is down there due to a large slice of bad luck. You've no doubt already guessed correctly that the latter is the away side.
With the loss of their key player Ivan Toney, who is still serving an eight-month suspension for gambling, Brentford is fighting quite valiantly in offence. With an average of 1.65 expected goals (xG) per game, they have the league's 10th-best offence despite having already managed to compete against several defensively capable units. Conversely, they still have to play against the likes of Sheffield United, Bournemouth, Luton and Burnley.
More important, however, is Brentford's defensive performance. They are the third-best in the league in terms of quality of goal opportunities allowed, behind only Manchester City and Arsenal. They allow their opponents only 1.03 xG per game.
In sum, while United are rightfully in 10th place according to the xG metric, Brentford should be around sixth according to their performances at both ends of the pitch.
Erik ten Hag's United side are characterised primarily by their quick transitions forward after winning the ball. They are ahead of Aston Villa in the average number of breakaways per game, creating the fourth most dangerous chances. Apart from the aforementioned Villa, Brighton and Liverpool are also better than United in this metric but the distance between the three is minimal.
However, Brentford manage to eliminate this threat frequently and only three other teams allow their opponents fewer quality chances from breakaways.
United have the second-lowest defensive aerial success rate this season (only Sheffield United are worse) and this weekend they will be up against a team whose hallmark is their excellent handling of set pieces. Brentford have managed to create four expected goals from them already, the second-highest number in the league.
Manchester's performance is also heavily affected by injuries in defence, with Lisandro Martinez, Luke Shaw, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Tyrell Malacia and Sergio Reguilon all unavailable. In short, an upset in this fixture would not be so surprising.
Atletico Madrid - Real Sociedad, Sunday
One of the highlights of the upcoming weekend in LaLiga will be the duel between two direct rivals in the league table - fourth-placed Atletico Madrid and fifth-placed Real Sociedad. And the data shows that the outsiders from San Sebastian have a decent chance to surprise the home side. The main analytical theme of their clash is the excellent defences of both teams.
In the case of Atleti and their coach Diego Simeone, this is no big surprise. However, little is known about how excellent a defensive unit his counterpart Imanol Alguacil has put together.
Last season in the Spanish top flight, Real Sociedad allowed their opponents the second-fewest dangerous chances - in numbers, only 0.84 expected goals per game.
This was less than both of Madrid's most famous clubs. Moreover, that trend set by Alguacil's squad has continued in the current season. In this important defensive metric, they have once again maintained their position as the second-best side in the league.
The quality of the two attacks so far is very similar, too, both in terms of expected and actual goals scored. In Sociedad's matches against teams playing in a low block (which includes Atletico), not too many goals have been scored so far this season and it is therefore quite possible that a similar scenario will be seen on Sunday.
It is a testament to the Blue and Whites' excellent form that since they played away against Real Madrid some time ago, they have dominated all their subsequent league matches. The last one was particularly valuable for them - the Basque derby against Athletic Bilbao ended in a 3-0 triumph.
