The Wallabies’ defeat to Fiji last weekend means Eddie Jones’ side need to win in Lyon or they’ll be on the brink of a first-ever pool-stage exit at the World Cup. A loss wouldn’t see Australia eliminated from the tournament, but it would leave them needing Fiji to slip up in both of their remaining matches against Georgia and Portugal - a tall order indeed.
As for Wales, Warren Gatland’s men sit four points clear of Australia and Fiji at the top of Pool C, knowing a win on Sunday will effectively seal their place in the knockout stages. However, there’s plenty of jeopardy over their position in the group, as failure to pick up at least a bonus point against the Aussies would likely see Wales squeezed into third spot in the final reckoning.
Given the magnitude of the occasion, as well as both nations’ inconsistent form over the past 18 months, it’s difficult to pick a clear favourite going into the contest. Therefore, both sides will fancy their chances of coming out on top, with several fiercely competitive battles expected all over the pitch.
Battle at the breakdown
One area Australia will need to drastically improve on is their discipline and composure at the breakdown. The Wallabies conceded a staggering 18 penalties in total against the Flying Fijians - 11 of which came at the breakdown where Jones’ side were overwhelmed and overpowered.
Australia will be wary of making the same mistake against Wales, with Dan Biggar never one to turn down the opportunity of creating scoreboard pressure. Gatland’s men will be sure to target Australia’s frailty around the ruck, picking the right moments to put the pressure on and jackal, while adopting the same defensive discipline that proved so successful for Fiji.
The continued absence of captain Will Skelton and prop Taniela Tupou is another major blow for Australia, who badly missed the physicality of their two most powerful forwards against Fiji. James Slipper was tasked with covering Tupou, and despite the Wallabies’ struggles in the scrum, the experienced loose-head has been named in the same starting position against Wales.
It remains to be seen whether Australia have been able to improve the speed and efficiency of their work on the ground after a soul-searching week on the training pitch. However, one thing’s for sure, Wales will be earmarking the breakdown as a key battle to win as they chase a fourth successive World Cup quarter-final appearance.
Wales wary of Australian response
Having lost six of their last seven internationals, Australia’s form couldn’t be worse as they prepare for a must-win clash. Despite the Wallabies’ dismal recent record, Wales assistant coach Jonathan Thomas has warned that Australia are a “wounded animal” that can still be “dangerous”.
Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Thomas said: “Confidence, for me, comes from the work you do during the week. That is where we get our focus from. We respect Australia as a rugby nation, they are a wounded animal, they can be dangerous.”
It’s worth noting that Wales’ pre-tournament form was just as concerning - suffering eight defeats in 10 matches. That run began with a sobering home loss to Georgia at the end of 2022, so Wales know as well as anyone just how quickly fortunes can change in rugby.
History Between The Two Nations
The two sides are familiar foes when it comes to World Cup action, having played each other seven times. The Wallabies lead that particular record 4-3, but it’s worth noting Wales have won three of the last four meetings in all competitions.
The pair were drawn together in the same pool back in 2019, with Wales winning 29-25 in a pulsating encounter in Tokyo. That match is just one of the many thrilling tests between the two nations over the past couple of decades, as the rivalry looks set for another fascinating chapter on Sunday evening.
Teams News
Having made 13 changes against Portugal in their second match, Wales have reverted back to the starting line-up that beat Fiji in a dramatic pool opener. Jac Morgan captains the side, while Dewi Lake - who led Wales against Portugal - is left out of the squad with Elliot Dee preferred as second choice hooker.
Adam Beard looks set to win his 50th cap after being reinstated in the second row alongside Will Rowlands. Unsurprisingly, Louis Rees-Zammit and Josh Adams start on the wings, with Rio Dyer dropping down to the bench.
As for Australia, Ben Donaldson has been handed the 10 jersey after starting the opening two matches at full-back. Donaldson replaces youngster Carter Gordon, who was taken off during the defeat to Fiji, while World Cup debutant Andrew Kellaway starts at 15.
The Wallabies’ other changes include Tate McDermott returning at scrum-half and Rob Leota coming into the back row to replace Fraser McReight. To accommodate Leota’s inclusion, Tom Hooper switches to open-side flanker.
Wales: 1. Thomas, 2. Elias, 3. Francis, 4. Rowlands, 5. Beard, 6. Wainwright, 7. Morgan (captain), 8. Faletau, 9. Davies, 10. Biggar, 11. Adams, 12. Tompkins, 13. North, 14. Rees-Zammit, 15. Williams
Australia: 1. Bell, 2. Porecki (captain), 3. Slipper, 4. Frost, 5. Arnold, 6. Leota, 7. Hooper, 8. Valetini, 9. McDermott, 10. Donaldson, 11. Koroibete, 12. Kerevi, 13. Petaia, 14. Nawaqanitawase, 15. Kellaway
