Six Nations preview: Scotland carry form into clash with Wales
But with just one more away trip to come in the SNC 2023 (France in Round 3), they have an outstanding opportunity to record their first top-two finish this century, having registered four third-place finishes in the SNC era since winning the last Five Nations Championship in 1999.
It was a masterclass in efficiency in a hostile environment from the Scots, who converted just 30% of territory, 44 seconds in the English 22 and the fewest total runs of all six sides across the weekend into two tries in each half courtesy of some imposing and incisive ball carrying from dual tryscorer Duhan van der Merwe, who amassed 104 metres and ten defenders beaten from just eight carries.
Whilst they were ably assisted by some sloppy turnovers and errors in restarts from a rusty opposition, there was still plenty to enjoy both about their resilient defending and their overall discipline.
“We weren't at our best today,” declared an emotional head coach Gregor Townsend in what could be his final Calcutta Cup as Scotland boss.
But for Townsend, it was not a disappointing analysis of his side’s win, but rather an encouraging one: “That's now the exciting thing for us, that we can grow more in this tournament.”
Whilst their third round trip to Paris will be the ultimate test of their growth, this meeting with an out-of-form Wales will show whether they can continue building solid momentum.
He has made just one change to the starting XV, with Zander Fagerson returning from injury to bump out 36-year-old WP Nel.
The potential problem for Scotland is that they followed up a win over England in the opening round of the 2022 SNC with an away loss to Wales (20-17) despite going in as warm favourites.
That was the only win of the entire tournament for the Welsh, who have dominated this H2H matchup regardless of their overall ups and downs, similarly to how Scotland have been able to get the better of England in good times and in bad. In fact, Wales have won 14 of 16 encounters since the start of 2008, and will be hoping this will be the fourth consecutive meeting won by the underdogs of the day.
Their “back to the future” return to Warren Gatland got off to a losing start last week, conceding a bonus point loss to the world’s number one-ranked nation Ireland in an unusual round where all three home sides lost.
Not since Scotland in 2015 had a home team that was not Italy been so badly beaten in this competition, which was particularly embarrassing for the Welsh considering they made 11 entries into the opposition 22 for just ten points, courtesy of several second-half blunders in attack.
Three experienced campaigners with 360 international caps between them - Justin Tipuric, Taulupe Faletau and Alun Wyn Jones - have been left out of the starting XV, with the first two tactical changes and the third due to a head injury.
Gatland was keener to look at the positives of what he described as a “huge improvement” in the second half, pointing to his team’s “line speed” and “pressure” after succumbing to a 27-3 deficit.
It was the second half, where they suffered a try difference of -9 across all games in 2022 compared with +2 prior to half-time, that Wales were often guilty of their worst rugby, so an incomplete performance looks a long way off.
Players to watch: Scottish fullback Stuart Hogg found the line in each half of Scotland’s last home H2H (L 24-25), whilst Wales’ sole try-scorer from last round, Liam Williams, also recorded a try in that thrilling match.
Hot stat: Wales have conceded the opening try of the match in their last six SNC games against all opponents excluding Italy.
