What's a good score at the T20 World Cup? We look at the data
Each cricket ground has slightly different dimensions, pitches and climatic conditions which affect teams’ performances and, more specifically, their ability to score runs.
As such, each cricket ground has a different ‘par score’ - the score you can expect to be competitive - much like each golf hole has a different par score based on its terrain.
Generally speaking, Australian grounds are known for having larger outfields, making it harder to score off fours and sixes than in most other places and also more likely to score off twos and threes through hard running between the wickets. The data supports this, too.
With fewer boundaries scored than in other parts of the world, we can expect games to be decided by slightly more modest totals at this T20 World Cup. Expect, as we’ve seen already in the early stages of the tournament, games to be decided by scores in the 160-180 range, rather than massive 200-plus totals being commonplace.
Let’s dig a little deeper to find out what we can expect a competitive total to be at each ground so you can know if your team is on their way to victory or not.
To determine what is ‘par’ for each venue, we’ve looked at the 10 most recent T20 matches at each ground. This is a pretty reasonable indication of what teams have tended to score on each pitch recently.
It should be noted that not many grounds in Australia have hosted many international T20 matches (T20Is). This is due to the fact that longer T20I series have only recently become frequent and because COVID-19 restrictions reduced the international games playable in Australia over the last couple of years significantly. The Adelaide Oval, for example, has hosted just five T20Is ever.
Despite a dearth of T20I data, thanks to the Big Bash League (BBL), all of the grounds have hosted lots of professional men’s T20 matches over the last few years. We will be drawing on this data as well to gain a better impression of each ground’s par 20-over score.
To determine the par scores we’ve taken the last 10 T20 matches at each venue - including BBL and T20Is, excluding women’s matches, matches below franchise T20 level and rain-shortened innings - and averaged out the 10 most recent first innings totals.
Geelong won’t be used in the tournament beyond the first group stage so that venue has been ignored.
Adelaide (Adelaide Oval) - par score: 169
Adelaide is generally considered to be a good place to bat. However, its long straight boundaries and the fact that spin is a little harder to score off there mean that teams with batsmen who can play spin well and craft an innings through singles and twos might fare better.
Interestingly, the team batting first in T20s at the Adelaide Oval has won 57% of the time so this is a ground where winning the toss could be key, too.
Matches: Group B winner vs Group A runner-up, Bangladesh vs India, New Zealand vs Group B runner-up, Australia vs Afghanistan, South Africa vs Group A runner-up, Bangladesh vs Pakistan, the second semi-final
Brisbane (the 'Gabba) - par score: 168
Brisbane hasn’t hosted many T20Is. Most recently, Australia posted a first-innings total of 178 in beating the West Indies there. However, the team batting second tends to win in Brisbane, but not by much (52% of the time in T20s).
One notable takeaway from the deeper data is that the 'Gabba bears one of the highest differentials of all the grounds between the economy rates of spinners and pace bowlers. Pace can be very expensive there so expect teams with strong spin attacks to have an upper hand.
Matches: Bangladesh vs Group B winner, Australia vs Group B runner-up, Afghanistan vs Group A winner, England vs New Zealand
Hobart (Bellerive Oval) - par score: 170
Hobart has already hosted a few matches in the first phase of the tournament and the scores have been mostly right on par. Perhaps more interesting, though, is just how cold it is in Hobart still with evening temperatures dropping below 10 degrees regularly.
The chilly, slightly more English conditions go hand in hand with the underperformance of spin in Hobart. Specifically, wrist spin has been very expensive here over its T20 history. It’s a venue which can offer a bit of swing to the pace bowlers and they tend to be more effective in general.
Matches to come: Ireland vs West Indies, Scotland vs Zimbabwe, Group A winner vs Group B runner-up, Bangladesh vs Group A runner-up, South Africa vs Group B winner
Melbourne (MCG) - par score: 166
The venue of the final on November 13th, the MCG has only a middling par score. The size of MCG’s outfield contributes to its lower boundary-hitting potential but that scoring hindrance is often offset by just how batter-friendly the pitch can be. Last season in the BBL, Melbourne Stars managed a near-world record 273 there, so big totals are possible.
The MCG has hosted the most T20Is in Australia (15) and the chasing team has won 67% of the time, so expect the toss to be critical perhaps even in the final.
Matches: India vs Pakistan, England vs Group B runner-up, Afghanistan vs New Zealand, Afghanistan vs Group B runner-up, Australia vs England, India vs Group B winner, The Final
Perth (Perth Stadium) - par score: 164
In the Australia versus England T20 series played before the World Cup, we saw England post a mammoth 208 at Perth Stadium. That somewhat flew in the face of the historical par score of the ground which turned out to be the lowest of all the venues.
Data suggests that Perth Stadium has one of the highest boundary-scoring percentages of venues in Australia. It’s known as a pacey pitch and that extra speed onto the bat can help with clearing the ropes but, equally, the extra pace and bounce can make facing nasty seam attacks really tricky. Keep an eye out for quick bowlers to dominate (South Africa, I'm looking at you!).
Matches: Afghanistan vs England, Australia vs Group A winner, Pakistan vs Group B winner, Pakistan vs Group A runner-up, India vs South Africa
Sydney (SCG) - par score: 173
Sydney showed up with the highest par score total of all the grounds. Hopefully, we will see some huge totals posted there and maybe even some magic in the first semi-final.
The SCG is considered a spin-friendly wicket and, looking at historical data, it turns out that spinners have markedly lower economy rates there than pace bowlers. Expect teams to roll out their full array of spin options in Sydney and for those bowlers to be the difference makers.
Matches: Australia vs New Zealand, Bangladesh vs South Africa, India vs Group A runner-up, New Zealand vs Group A winner, Pakistan vs South Africa, England vs Group A winner, 1st semi-final
In summary, scores between 165-175 should be generally par in this World Cup. Expect totals closer to 180 (and over) to be hard to chase down anywhere in the country. The toss should not be as decisive in Australia as it was in the last World Cup in the UAE but, as discussed, it could play a leading role in Melbourne.
As ever in T20 cricket, it'll be the marginal differences that set teams apart as the tournament progresses and the best teams rise to the latter stages. Navigating the differences between the grounds and thus selecting appropriately and executing tailor-made plans will be key to who comes away as the world's new T20 champion.
